An analysis of occupational trends in New Zealand, 1991-2001

The following is a research paper completed by the Department of Labour on occupational trends in New Zealand between 1991 and 2001. The current provision and co-ordination of information on the demand for and availability of skills in New Zealand is very high level, patchy and poorly co-ordinated. To improve the future matching of people’s skills to jobs will require better information on future job prospects. Analysis of historical trends can contribute to this. Such information could also aid students, prospective students, potential new and return migrants, employers and providers to make informed employment, training and migration decisions. These groups will need information on the potential returns to investment in particular skill acquisition, the potential for training and development, and the “security” of potential jobs. One way of providing this kind of information is to perform quantitative forecasts of occupational trends. There are a range of occupational forecasting methods that can be used, however many of these methods are resource intensive and some uncertainty exists about their usefulness and accuracy.