This paper is intended to promote discussion on the challenges and opportunities in relation to the future New Zealand labour market. The information provided will have implications for current policy responses and programmes for a future high performing labour market, and will point to areas where new or additional approaches could be considered.
While we cannot predict the future, having a clearer understanding of what the labour market might look like in 12 years will enable the Department to assess the ongoing relevance of current policy settings and to identify windows of opportunity for new or additional responses. We need to start now to research, design and implement the workforce and workplace initiatives, so that New Zealand is well placed to capitalise on the labour market opportunities likely to be available in 2020.
The Department believes there are some notable forces that will affect the New Zealand labour market in the next 12 years, including:
1. Population and labour force changes
- movement of significant population cohorts (baby blip and baby boomers) into, through and out of the workforce
- a more diverse workforce
2. Continuing globalisation
- movement of work and workers internationally
- growing challenge of matching international productivity gains
3. Technology and changing skill requirements
- accelerating pace of technological change and innovation and the impact on industries and occupations
- evolving nature of work, including variety of employment arrangements
4. Climate change and resource pressures
- mitigation and adaptation to climate change and natural resource constraints
- green jobs and materials/energy productivity
These forces of change present multiple challenges for New Zealand. If we are well prepared for transition, a skilled and flexible labour force will allow New Zealand to take advantage of a variety of arising opportunities. It is our task to work with partners and stakeholders to better understand new trends and make sure we have the policy environment and tools to respond effectively.