This paper sets out the forecast of the prison population for 2009–2017 and the forecast of non-custodial sentences and orders for 2009–2013. The non-custodial sentences and orders included are those overseen by the Community Probation and Psychological Services (CPPS). Both Prison Services and CPPS are part of the Department of Corrections. The forecast also includes the number of pre-sentence reports provided to courts by probation officers for 2009–2013. The forecast represents a key instrument for strategic planning within the justice sector, and was completed in September 2009. The forecasts cover different time periods because differences in the data underpinning each forecast mean we have different levels of confidence in the results.
The forecasts project the numbers of people expected to be held in custody either on remand, awaiting trial or sentencing or serving prison sentences, and the numbers of non-custodial sentences started. They draw on recent trends as well as the best available estimates of how those trends may change in future, on the basis of current legislation and policy as at September 2009. They are monitored regularly, with a report prepared every other month that notes the difference between the forecast and actual numbers.
Methodology
As in previous years, this forecast projects the selected quantities for eight years into the future. The prison forecast identifies changes in the remand and sentenced populations separately. The 2009 forecast is based on the same broad approach as that outlined in the technical report for the 2006 forecast. The forecast draws on trends established in recent years in a range of factors that affect the numbers of people in prison, and incorporates assumptions about how those trends are likely to change over time.
Key Results
The forecast shows that the prison population is expected to grow more slowly over the next eight years than it has over the past eight years, and more slowly than forecast in 2008. By June 2016 the total prison population is now expected to be 646 lower than forecast last year, due for the most part to lower growth in the length of time prisoners are remanded in custody awaiting trial or sentence, resulting from reduced court processing times.