This annual report is the 13th in a series that examines trends in temporary and permanent migration to and from New Zealand. The report updates trends to 2012/13 and compares recent immigration patterns with patterns identified in previous years.
Key Results
Increase in permanent migration across the OECD
The OECD is experiencing modest growth in immigration after three consecutive years of decline. Annual migration flows in OECD countries grew by about 2 per cent in 2011 to reach almost 4 million and this upward trend is predicted to continue. However, the international migration picture remains mixed with an increase in immigration but flows remaining significantly below pre-recession levels and temporary labour migration stagnant. In New Zealand, permanent migration and temporary labour migration flows remain below pre-recession levels. Policy developments continued to focus on attracting high-skilled migrants and international students.
Canterbury rebuild presents challenges and opportunities
The Canterbury rebuild is expected to help lift economic and employment growth during 2014 and 2015, especially in the Canterbury region. The rebuild will increase the demand for specific skills, particularly in building professions and trades. This is likely to increase the demand for migrants if those skills cannot be readily met from within New Zealand. The number of Essential Skills workers approved in Canterbury has continued to increase since a low in the March 2011 quarter due to the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake and has exceeded pre-recession level.
Net migration gain in 2012/13 following net loss in 2011/12
A net migration gain of 7,900 people occurred in 2012/13 following a net migration loss of 3,200 in 2011/12. An increase in arrivals and decrease in departures on a permanent and long-term basis contributed to the overall net gain in 2012/13. Net migration is forecast to improve from around 16,000 in the September 2013 year with the annual net flow expected to exceed 30,000 from mid-2014.
Numbers of temporary workers increased across most work categories …
The total number of people approved for temporary work visas in 2012/13 was up 5 per cent on the previous year with increases across most visa categories. The number of people approved under the Essential Skills Policy increased 2 per cent in 2012/13. This was the first annual increase in Essential Skills workers since the start of the global economic slowdown and reflects the growth in demand in Canterbury. Increases occurred in the number of temporary workers approved under the Working Holiday Schemes (13 per cent), Study to Work Policy (6 per cent), and horticulture and viticulture seasonal work policies (5 per cent).
… while permanent migration to New Zealand continued to fall
The New Zealand Residence Programme target for 2011/12 to 2013/14 is 135,000–150,000 places. In 2012/13, 38,961 people were approved a resident visa, down 4 per cent from 40,448 in 2011/12. The largest source countries of permanent migrants to New Zealand were China (15 per cent) and the United Kingdom and India (13 per cent each).
India is the largest source of skilled migrants
In 2012/13, 18,156 people were approved through the Skilled Migrant Category (SMC), which was 47 per cent of all residence approvals. The number of SMC approvals decreased 4 per cent from 2011/12, although the decline was more modest than in previous years. The decrease reflects a flow-on effect from the prior decrease in Essential Skills workers due to the global economic slowdown and subsequent downturn in labour demand. India was the largest source country of skilled migrants (19 per cent) followed by the United Kingdom (15 per cent). The growth in skilled migrants from India is mainly due to an increase in Indian international students transitioning to residence.
China is the largest source country of family-sponsored migrants
The Capped and Uncapped Family Streams enable New Zealand citizens and permanent residents to sponsor close family members for residence. In 2012/13, 11,291 people were approved for residence through the Uncapped Family Stream and 4,401 people were approved through the Capped Family Stream. These two streams comprised 40 per cent of all residence approvals. China was the largest source country of residence approvals in both the Uncapped (42 per cent) and Capped (17 per cent) Family Streams.
Around two-fifths of International/Humanitarian Stream approvals were from Pacific countries
Over 1,300 people were approved residence through the Samoan Quota Scheme and Pacific Access Category in 2012/13, with Samoa and Tonga being the largest source countries of approvals. In addition to the Pacific quotas, 836 people were approved through the Refugee Quota Programme. The largest source countries of quota refugees in 2012/13 were Burma (28 per cent), Bhutan (18 per cent) and Iraq (17 per cent).
International student numbers continued to fall in 2012/13 …
In 2012/13, the number of international students approved to study in New Zealand (64,232 students) continued to fall, down 7 per cent from 2011/12. This follows a 7 per cent decrease from the previous year. Likely factors that contributed to this decrease were the high New Zealand exchange rate, increased international competition for export education and the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. China remains the largest source country of international students (27 per cent) followed by India (13 per cent) and South Korea (8 per cent). Compared with 2011/12, the number of students from South Korea and India decreased 21 per cent and 7 per cent respectively while the number of students from China remained similar.
… and 1 in 5 international students gained permanent residence
International students have become an important source of skilled migrants for New Zealand and other countries. Many countries have sought to attract international students by providing opportunities for them to work or stay in the country permanently after completing study. Over the last decade, 22 per cent of international students gained permanent residence in New Zealand within five years of being issued their first student visa. In 2012/13, 42 per cent of skilled principal migrants were former international students.
Visitor numbers unchanged in 2012/13
Visitor numbers in 2012/13 (excluding Australian citizens) was around 1.25 million, unchanged from 2011/12, but the Rugby World Cup had boosted visitor numbers in 2011/12. The top three source countries of visitor arrivals in 2012/13 were China, the United States and the United Kingdom. China had the largest absolute increase in visitor arrivals (up 47,000 or 29 per cent) and moved from ranking third in 2011/12 to first in 2012/13.
Migration is expected to increase alongside economic recovery
This report shows the impact that significant local and global events have had on migration flows to and from New Zealand. Globally, economic conditions continue to have a significant impact on migration, yet the demand for labour migration is expected to increase alongside the economic recovery.
The composition of migrants to New Zealand continues to change. Monitoring migration trends helps us to better understand the wider global environment in which migration takes place, important developments in New Zealand’s key markets, and the impact of current immigration policies.