This first New Zealand Housing Report provides a broad overview of housing market conditions in the building and housing sector. It is the first document to pull together in one place all the information available and look at the overall balance of housing demand and supply. The report provides reference material that all participants in the sector (both public and private) can use to improve their understanding of the housing market and therefore the quality of their decisions.
The report’s conclusions must be treated with some caution, both because of the complex nature of the subject and because of some gaps in data. Caution is required in these two areas in particular:
• Distinction between ‘underlying’ and ‘effective’ demand – The underlying (or population-driven) volume of demand is distinct from effective (or economic) demand, which is the combined effect of consumerinvestor aspirations or desire to rent or buy and their financial ability or willingness to do so. Forecasts of demand in this report are based on population-driven analysis; the impact of income limitations and buyer preferences is commented on but not quantified.
• Numbers of permanently occupied houses – Significant gaps in the available data mean we cannot be certain what proportion of new dwelling consents translate into permanently occupied houses. Nor do we know what proportion of dwellings that are recorded in Census data as not permanently occupied are vacant and available to be occupied, as some of these will be holiday homes, under repair, or unavailable for some other reason.