The below reports provide employment prospects forecasts for 2012-15 and 2013-2016.
The Ministry uses a short-term forecasting model that draws on the latest macroeconomic forecasts by the Treasury, to provide more detailed information on the labour market covering employment in broad industries, occupations or high-level grouping of skills and for regions.
Short-term Employment Prospects: 2012-2015
Employment prospects to March 20151 are presented in this paper which is an update on the employment prospects to March 2014 assessed six months ago. These employment forecasts will be used to inform the Ministry’s advice over the next 2-3 years, relating to immigration priorities, and priority setting for tertiary education and industry training. The forecasts have a particular focus on rising employment demand associated with the Canterbury rebuild, which is likely to generate strong demand for employment over the next two years. Following this, employment demand is expected to return to normal growth trends.
Short-term Employment Prospects: 2013-2016
Employment prospects over the next 3 years to March 2016 are presented in this report which is an update on the employment prospects to March 2015 assessed in late 2012. These employment forecasts will be used to inform the Ministry’s advice relating to immigration priorities, and priority setting for tertiary education and industry training over the next 2-3 years. The forecasts suggest overall employment demand rising in response to stronger economic growth associated mainly with the Canterbury rebuild over the next three years and peaking in the 2015 year to March.